On the occasion of the 80th anniversary of ANAV (National Association of Italian Road Transport and Travellers - Confindustria), a study by the Politecnico di Milano was presented entitled “Analisi delle opportunità e delle criticità per la transizione energetica nel TPL in Italia”, which analyses opportunities and critical issues for the energy transition in local public transport (TPL) in Italy. The analysis, by Prof. Pierluigi Coppola (Chairman of the NME Scientific Technical Committee), highlighted how a gradual approach towards alternative fuels offers significant advantages over a direct switch to electric, ensuring a more effective renewal of the bus fleet. The study shows how a gradual transition to alternative fuels, as opposed to a direct switch to electric, can ensure more efficient renewal of the Italian bus fleet, improving the sustainability of the sector. Simulations for the 2024-2033 period show that only 37% of the urban fleet would be renewed if only electric buses were purchased. With a gradual transition, however, it would be possible to replace 48% of the vehicles, lowering the average age of the fleet by more than a year compared to the all-electric scenario. As far as greenhouse gas emissions are concerned, which today account for 0.7% of total emissions from bus passenger transport, a gradual transition would reduce this to 0.65%, a minimal difference compared to the all-electric scenario, which would bring emissions down to 0.6%. The study also highlighted that a gradual transition makes it possible to deal more flexibly with current problems, such as the scarcity of charging and refuelling infrastructure, the limited availability of vehicles for transport between towns and uncertain energy costs. In the out-of-town sector, the advantages of a gradual transition are even more pronounced: replacing almost half of the current fleet would reduce the average age of vehicles by almost three years, exceeding the results that can be achieved according to the more stringent scenarios of the National Strategic Plan for Sustainable Mobility. In conclusion, the Politecnico di Milano study emphasises the need to increase resources from 2026, when the NRRP funds will be exhausted. An increase of at least 500 million euros per year is essential to keep the average age of the bus fleet under 10 years, improving the attractiveness of public transport and encouraging a modal shift from private to collective transport.

Meanwhile in Italy, the electric bus market continues to demonstrate considerable growth. In the first nine months of 2024, registrations of electric buses increased by 61.4%, corresponding to no fewer than 418 new vehicles. If we include buses with a mass of more than 8 tonnes, the number rises to as many as 499, an increase of 69.7%. These figures are a clear indication of the growing interest in sustainable mobility in our country.